The Legal and General is reporting that economic indicators are flagging up a 95 percent chance of economic slowdown and subsequent recession.
According to an analyst at the company these indicators are even more pronounced than in 2001, the last time the UK economy fell upon hard times. This time the country is even more reliant on borrowing and the criteria for lending money is tighter than before. It has also been said that, even if access to credit becomes easier the startlingly fast rise in the price of fuel will keep the pressure on consumers and the economy.
The Legal and General analysts are factoring in the global slowdown that is needed, saying that countries such as the UK and USA will be hardest hit. All in all these look like trying times for the economy and consumers.
The first six months of the year has seen Northern Rock record a loss of GBP585 million, primarily through their customers being unable to meet the payments on their mortgage.
The figures provided by Northern Rock show 1.18 percent of customers are regularly missing mortgage payments, which is an increase of 300 percent compared with 12 months ago. The upshot of missed payments is arrears, with the number of people now in this state also up by around 300 percent.
The worry for everyone looking at the housing situation, not just Northern Rock, is that these arrears can turn into repossessions, especially where negative equity becomes a problem, such a situation will be affecting many homeowners who bought their house within the last two years.
The May Fundamentals report produced by Legal and General suggests that the economic outlook for the UK is a negative one.
There are some positive factors said the Legal and General, such as low unemployment, the weaker pond helping exports and the fact that consumer spending is still active. However they see more negative elements than positive ones which leads them to rating the economic forecast as poor.
Key pointers include the much more difficult lending conditions facing borrowers, higher levels of debt and also a rate of inflation that is rising much too quickly. All in all the Legal and General view is that, unless changes are seen in this factors the UK economy could face real difficulties.
