The head economist from Lloyds TSB has commented on the unchanged base rate announced today, explaining that it was the need to keep a lid on inflation that led to the decision.
Although there is still a real threat of further economic slowdown the Bank of England could not afford to cut the base rate again since the underlying rate of inflation is higher than it should be. As the Lloyds TSB pointed out, a further base rate cut could fuel more rises in inflation, completely the opposite of what is needed.
He went on to say that, as far as Lloyds TSB can see there will need to be more indications that the economy really is in a slowdown mode before base rates can be considered for reduction again.
Representatives from Virgin Money have been discussing the potential purchase of troubled Northern Rock, they being part of a larger consortium.
The plan, if accepted, will be to make an initial GBP 11 billion payment, via commercial debt providers, and then put in a further GBP 1.3 billion for fresh capital investment. At the moment Northern Rock appear to accept the proposal put before them although there are questions over the longer term risk that taxpayers would face on the outstanding debt position.
The government will no doubt acknowledge this risk but it will be mitigated in some way by the interest rate they will earn on it, bringing extra revenue in to cover the risk, to a certain extent anyway. Right now Virgin Money look like firm favourites to take the Northern rock situation on, though only time will tell if that is the case.
According to the Lloyds TSB Business Unit the economy in Scotland is growing, albeit at a lower than hoped for rate.
Looking at the last three months almost 40 percent of businesses in Scotland reported that turnover was up, a third remained unchanged whilst 28 percent had seen a reduction. When combined these figures show a net gain of 11 percent – better than the quarter before but much less than the same time last year. A Lloyds TSB economist reported that Scottish businesses were expecting their figures to reduce in the next 6 months though their actual performance was better than the rest of the country.
Both manufacturing and service industries had enjoyed growth over the last quarter, which is a very healthy situation, though some business owners were telling the Lloyds TSB survey that they were beginning to notice the access to credit tightening up which could be a concern in the future.